I am a model

It is hard to even fathom let alone comprehend the size, scale, and complexity of the universe. It takes light 91 billion years to traverse the diameter of the observable universe. That is approximately six times longer than the age of the universe itself. Similarly, the amount of information in the world vastly overwhelms the… Continue reading I am a model



Humans are natural pattern recognition machines. We have an evolved instinct not only to recognize different patterns but also to categorize and store these patterns in order to make future predictions. In fact, this ability to recognize and represent patterns to draw a variety of intuitive inferences could be the defining and most original characteristic… Continue reading Stereotypes

Truth Springs from Arguments

Nature is saturated with feedback mechanisms ranging in scale from the molecular to the macroscopic. Feedback is defined as the process of mutual causal interaction: where A affects B and B affects A. This interaction creates a circuit of effects, so any change in A, causes a change in B, which in turn causes a… Continue reading Truth Springs from Arguments

Tail Events

The human brain (like any other organ) has evolved for specific environments and is constrained by its chemistry and historical contingencies. In my last post, I discussed the cognitive blind spots that play a role in the epidemic of over-testing and over-treating in medicine. Human decision making is notoriously ill equipped to distinguish between low… Continue reading Tail Events

Medicine, the science of uncertainty

In a recent article, it was estimated that at least $200 billion is wasted annually on excessive testing and treatment. The impact of the overly aggressive, extraneous care is not only financial in nature but also generates mistakes and injuries believed to cause 30,000 deaths each year.┬áIn 1979 the founders of the field of behavioral… Continue reading Medicine, the science of uncertainty