The Foggy Road

In his book Surfing Uncertainty: Prediction, Action, and the Embodied Mind, Andy Clark used the metaphor of driving on a foggy but familiar road versus driving on a similarly foggy but unfamiliar road, to the tension between the top-down predictions and bottom-up sensory data. When navigating the familiar but foggy road, memory of that road… Continue reading The Foggy Road

Truth Springs from Arguments

Nature is saturated with feedback mechanisms ranging in scale from the molecular to the macroscopic. Feedback is defined as the process of mutual causal interaction: where A affects B and B affects A. This interaction creates a circuit of effects, so any change in A, causes a change in B, which in turn causes a… Continue reading Truth Springs from Arguments

A Bayesian EHR

As an Emergency physician, my job is┬áto make predictions. Throughout the day (and night), I make predictions related to treatment outcomes, management plans, and patient dispositions. These predictions are often fraught with risk (but mostly uncertainty) and I am constantly aware that every decision I make is inherently probabilistic. The framework that most physicians lean… Continue reading A Bayesian EHR